Scenarios are stories that describe possible future events. They are used to understand and explore different possible ways in which the future can unfold.
1. Decide on the key question(s) to be analyzed.
2. Determine what is necessary to make a believable scenario, such as stakeholders, goals, and the scope of the scenario.
3. Map basic trends and driving forces that will/ can affect the future.
4. Consider key uncertainties and unknowns.
5. Determine a starting point for the scenario.
6. Produce 7-9 mini-scenarios and then reduce the number to 3.
7. In a simple language, describe the interactions and how they would behave within the proposed context.
Once some research has been done and there is a need for solutions that are set in possible future(s).
Developing scenarios for the future helps to design solutions which can be simplified to fit in the present.
Write in simple, easy readable language and in the third person. Keep in mind that written scenarios are purely hypothetical.
Analysis of possible futures that allow to test concepts.
Visualize the scenarios, drawing and video work very well.
SCHOEMAKER, Paul JH. Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan management review, 1995, 36.2: 25-50./ WOLTERS, G. W.; STEENBEKKERS, L. P. A. The scenario method to gain insight into user actions. In: User Behavior and Technology Development. Springer Netherlands, 2006. p. 233-240./